Study Raises Fresh Concerns Over Scale Of Brazil’s Illegal Betting Market

Fresh concerns have emerged over the scale of illegal betting in Brazil after new research identified a BRL25.6bn ($5.1bn) difference between estimated household gambling losses and figures reported by the Ministry of Finance.

The third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States estimated that households lost BRL62.5bn ($12.5bn) to betting during 2025. However, official Ministry of Finance figures placed the total at BRL36.9bn, leaving a substantial portion of estimated activity unaccounted for in the government data.

While the study does not conclude that the entire BRL25.6bn difference was spent with illegal operators, the discrepancy represents approximately 41% of its overall estimate – a figure that closely corresponds with previous research into Brazil's unlicensed gambling sector.

Figures Mirror Previous Illegal Market Estimates

Research conducted by São Paulo-based LCA Consultores for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) previously estimated that unlicensed betting accounts for between 41% and 51% of the Brazilian market.

The BRL25.6bn difference between the latest study's BRL62.5bn estimate and the Ministry of Finance's BRL36.9bn figure is equivalent to around 41% of the former total, placing it at the bottom of LCA's estimated range.

Although the figures cannot establish precisely how much Brazilian gambling activity is taking place outside the regulated sector, their similarity provides further indication of the potential scale of the country's black market.

The Fiscal Bulletin was prepared by the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) alongside the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. Its findings were based on information from the Central Bank of Brazil, Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity (EPAE) and calculations conducted by the researchers.

Betting Activity Linked To BRL350.97bn In Pix Transactions

The study also found that betting businesses were associated with BRL350.97bn in transactions through Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, during 2025.

Researchers estimated household betting losses at BRL62.5bn by calculating net transaction value – the amount wagered minus funds subsequently returned as winnings.

That figure was equivalent to approximately 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households, according to the report.

The research also examined Pix activity between October 2024 and March 2026, comparing actual transfers from individuals to businesses within the arts, culture, sports and recreation sectors against estimated transaction volumes had changes to gambling regulation not occurred.

The difference between the two scenarios was used to estimate the impact associated with betting activity. However, the researchers stressed that the methodology represents a statistical simulation and does not demonstrate a definitive causal relationship.

Restrictions Produce Measurable Change In Pix Activity

The report also identified changes in transaction patterns following restrictions preventing recipients of the Bolsa Família welfare programme from participating in betting.

According to the study, transaction growth slowed following the introduction of the restriction, with estimated transfer volumes moving closer to those actually recorded.

Researchers suggested that the change indicates lower-income households have represented a meaningful proportion of Brazil's online betting activity.

The findings come as Brazil continues to address the presence of unlicensed gambling alongside its federally regulated market. The similarity between the BRL25.6bn discrepancy identified in the latest research and previous estimates of illegal market share is likely to add further scrutiny to the amount of betting activity taking place beyond the licensed sector.