Prediction Markets Hit Record $50bn Peak in July as World Cup Drives Trading Frenzy
Combined, Polymarket’s platforms generated $12.9bn, down from approximately $14bn in June.
A record-breaking month driven by the FIFA World Cup saw prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket generate a combined $50.59bn (£39.60bn) in monthly trading volume in July, marking the highest level recorded in the sector's history.
However, open interest cooled rapidly following the conclusion of the tournament, highlighting the industry's reliance on major global sporting events.Kalshi captured the lion's share of the July expansion, processing $37.7bn in trades—a 14 per cent sequential increase from June—further consolidating its market lead.
Conversely, Polymarket presented a mixed performance across its international and domestic operations. Trading volume on Polymarket’s offshore platform dropped 26 per cent month-on-month to $7.9bn. However, this was partially offset by its CFTC-regulated American entity, Polymarket US, which surged 54 per cent to $5bn after lifting waitlist restrictions for all eligible American users earlier in the year.
Combined, Polymarket’s platforms generated $12.9bn, down from approximately $14bn in June.
Shift to Regulated US Platforms
The divergence in Polymarket's figures illustrates a broader migration of American retail traders toward regulated domestic channels.
Prior to the full launch of Polymarket US, analysis by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that US participants accounted for roughly 30 per cent of trading volume on Polymarket’s international site in the 12 months leading up to April 2026. The latest July metrics indicate that American volume is steadily migrating toward federally oversighted infrastructure. Football contracts served as the primary growth driver throughout the month. Kalshi’s market on the World Cup final between Spain and Argentina alone generated $1.9bn in volume, while Polymarket's outright tournament winner contract attracted roughly $4bn.
The post-tournament hangover was immediate: total open interest across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US contracted sharply from $2bn at the start of July to approximately $1.2bn by the end of the month as traders liquidated their positions.
Ongoing Federal vs State Legal Conflict
Despite record-setting commercial figures, regulatory friction surrounding event contracts remains unresolved.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket remain locked in legal disputes with over a dozen US state gaming regulators, which contend that sports-focused event contracts constitute unlicensed sports betting under state law. The platforms, supported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), maintain that federally regulated event contracts fall exclusively under federal jurisdiction—a conflict that continues to play out across US courts.
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