Can Prediction Market Operators Replicate Their US Success in Europe?

For any football fan that watched this year’s FIFA men’s World Cup with any regularity, the sighting of the ADI Predictstreet brand name would have been close to unavoidable. In April, FIFA announced a $150 million multi-year partnership, making ADI Predictstreet the first official prediction markets partner of football’s governing body. This was a statement of intent from ADI Predictstreet, as it attempts to compete with market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. 

What many casual observes may not have noticed though, is that ADI Predictstreet’s platform became available in the UK on the eve of the tournament in June, as part of a partnership with Matchbook.  

The ADI Predictstreet platform on its own website is unavailable to UK users. ADI was granted a license by the government of Gibraltar in early April, but it is not licensed directly by regulator the Gambling Commission, and has effectively secured a carriage deal with Matchbook. 

In January, Matchbook’s parent company, Triplebet, became the UK’s first official prediction markets operator when it repackaged the sportsbook at its EasyBet brand as a prediction market. Predictstreet.matchbook.com is now listed among the domain names under Triplebet Limited’s Gambling Commission license. Matchbook itself operates as a peer-to-peer betting exchange. 

ADI is thought by industry insiders to have set up its licensing in a complex way as part of a rush to get to market in time for the World Cup, and obtaining its own license was seen as risky, as it may not have been able to launch in time for the start of the tournament on June 11. 

What does this mean?

This all leads to questions about whether we are likely to see any kind of similar growth for prediction markets in Europe as we have seen in the US, where the big two are progressing at rapid speed. According to KPMG, trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $40 billion in 2025, up from $9 billion in 2024.

Europe remains football’s number one market, so many Europe-based viewers will now be aware of ADI Predictstreet. However, there are a number of reasons why predictions markets operators may struggle to replicate their US success in Europe. One potential hurdle is the addressable market in Europe has already been cornered by betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq. 

Betting exchanges present to the bettor in a much less simple fashion than the “Yes” or “No” nature of prediction markets bets. The US is also seen as being at an earlier stage of its sports and online betting journey than Europe, with regulation being a more recent development, particularly in sports betting.

Model in place 

David Zeffman, Consultant for law firm CMS, tells iGaming News:

“I don't expect significant growth in prediction markets in the UK, because the UK already has had the betting exchange model for over 20 years. The main difference is the user experience. Traditional betting exchanges are designed for relatively sophisticated bettors. They take some time to understand and are better suited to people who are comfortable with trading-style interfaces, whereas the prediction markets’ user interface is much simpler and more accessible to recreational bettors.”

The legal framework is also set up entirely differently in Europe. In the US, prediction markets can be operated under a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and operators have not sought licensing from a state’s gaming regulator. In November, the CFTC gave permission to Polymarket to operate in all 50 US states.

Steve Ruddock, an analyst and consultant for the gambling industry, says:

“The regulatory fragmentation in Europe will lead to a diverse array of outcomes, but most are likely to be negative, as every country has its own gambling laws, and very few, if any, have a centralised, powerful regulator like the CFTC that can reclassify sports contracts at prediction markets as event contracts.”

Europe’s stance is clear 

A number of European countries have either classified or outlined an opinion that prediction markets are gambling products. These include: Great Britain, Ireland, France, Spain Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Poland, Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Switzerland and Ukraine.

However, when ADI Predictstreet launched in the UK in June, Gibraltar became the first European jurisdiction to license prediction markets. The legal stances across Europe may also be seen as a positive, as it makes the landscape clearer than it is in the US, where several states have issued cease and desist orders. 

Ruddock adds:

“In Europe, progress will be slower than in the US, where they [prediction market operators] could become top of the food chain. It will likely require several perfectly threaded needles, starting with sustained success and normalisation in the US and that success trickling over to European jurisdictions.”

Is it possible we could see legal challenges to rulings such as the Gambling Commission’s guidance that prediction markets operators require a license? Ryan Horn, a sports industry consultant, says: 

“A legal or regulatory challenge is possible, particularly where a platform argues that its contracts are financial instruments, information markets or hedging products rather than gambling. 

“The difficulty is the Gambling Commission’s position is clear: where customers stake money on uncertain future events and trade against one another, the activity looks substantially like betting.”

A marketing workaround?

Various European markets have stringent marketing laws, throwing up the potential issue of whether prediction markets operators could potentially circumvent those laws by claiming to not offer gambling services. 

In the English Premier League for example, a voluntary ban on front-of-shirt sponsorship from gambling operators comes into effect this upcoming season. There are also gambling advertising bans in place in Belgium and Italy, with the Netherlands set to implement its own complete ban on advertising and bonusing.

Zeffman says:

“They can certainly try [to circumvent marketing laws], but I don't think there is any workaround. Most, if not all, of the countries that prohibit or restrict gambling advertising regard prediction markets as gambling products.”

It would seem the moment for prediction markets operators to make a splash in Europe may still be some way off, but recent developments certainly suggest they can gradually increase awareness across the pond.  

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