SPECIAL: Premier League Predictions Roundtable

With Liverpool tipped for back-to-back titles, relegation battles set to spring surprises, and markets evolving faster than ever, the 25/26 Premier League season promises to be a feast for bettors. In this roundtable, Pragmatic Play’s SVP of Sports Gareth Crook, Abelson Sports’ Chief Betting Officer Jeeve Jeyaratnam, and Genius Sports’ Head of Business Development Will Westcott share their insights on shifting odds, player-driven markets, and the trends shaping football trading in the year ahead.

What lessons or surprises from the 24/25 season are shaping how you're setting odds going into the 25/26 Premier League season?

JJ - Honestly, there aren’t any specific lessons from the past season. There are certain trends and adaptations that are made throughout the season but our models will weight data in a way that smooths recency bias without ignoring trends.  

Perhaps the biggest adaptation is the change to five substitutes. One of the impacts has been the introduction of sub-on-play-on, which is proving popular with punters and ensures engagement for an entire game (less if the bet has already won!). This concession doesn’t come for free though and during the bloodbath that was Spain (5) v (4) France in the Nations League that particular promotion compounded the woe, with scoring substitutes Rayan Cherki coming on for the well backed Michael Olise and Randall Kolo Muani replacing the incredibly popular Ousmane Dembele. bet365 reported that the concession paid out a staggering £16.3M.

GC - Last season proved how volatile even the top clubs can be and how costly slow reactions in the market can become. Manchester City’s drop-off surprised many; and the market was often slow to adjust. While we take in odds/data from multiple feed providers to influence our pricing, we’ve learned the importance of applying weighting earlier when it becomes clear that a team isn’t performing to preseason expectations. This year, I expect the market to place more emphasis on dynamic team ratings to trigger manual pricing adjustments if the data warrants it.

We also saw how the gap between the traditional top six and the smarter mid-table sides continues to shrink. Clubs like Brighton and Fulham have led the charge in closing the gap, but last season, it was Forest who repeatedly defied expectations. On the other side of that, Manchester United were often going off at historically massive prices; a far cry from when they were routinely treated and priced as a top-three team.

Finally, a key data point stood out: Manchester City featured in 10 of the top 11 most-bet matches across our operators last season. The only non-City game was the Merseyside Derby. It reinforces our observation that bettors are drawn to big clubs, big stars, and big narratives, which is why trading, marketing, and content initiatives need to reflect that consistently.

WW - One of the big takeaways from last season was the impact of VAR and the introduction of semi-automated offside technology. The latter was built by Genius Sports. While VAR stoppages can cause in-play suspensions for operators, we’ve invested heavily to maintain high market uptimes in these moments.

Using monte-carlo simulations, our in-play models regularly deliver 100% uptime on Premier League fixtures to enable our clients to maximise turnover. We outperform the market by an average of 5% uptime per fixture. This is equivalent to 35 extra hours of betting availability across a season, or around 23 full matches.

Elsewhere? Growing share of in-play wallet is going to be a key battleground. Recreational punters love to bet on narrative-driven markets, for example Total Corners or Player Cards, as the action unfolds. High uptimes across fast markets, betbuilders, goalscorers and cash-out, especially on TV games, is going to be crucial.

Which player trends are expected to have the most impact on prop markets this season? 

JJ - It will be interesting to see how well enforced (or not) the adjusted penalisation regarding goalkeepers holding onto the ball for longer than eight seconds, is. Under a new directive referees will punish such tardiness with a corner awarded to the opposing team. I’d expect to see this fairly strictly enforced in the opening weeks of the season, before an easing off. The impact, should there be a strict enforcement, will affect corner market quotes and could favour tall set-piece specialists. Maybe we’ll see an increase in headed goals and a small redistribution of goals for centre-backs. 

The strongest trends over the last season or so relate to the increasing popularity of player shot markets. In places, shots on target are more popular than anytime scorers. The higher frequency shots and shots on target markets hit a sweet spot in that they are trackable by eye and occur at a rate greater than goals. This makes them a perfect metric to add into bet builders. 

GC - Shots on Goal remains the dominant prop market and rightly so, especially with the arrival of high-profile signings like Viktor Gyökeres, Florian Wirtz, Tijjani Reijnders, and Hugo Ekitike. These players will draw immediate interest; we expect early action in goal and assist markets.

What’s shifting the landscape is positional fluidity. Last season gave us real examples where full-backs regularly stepped into midfield, and wingers cut inside to dictate play, leading to far more total passes than the market had priced in. That created volatility in player pricing performance, especially early in the season. We had to evolve our pricing logic in real time and others did the same. It’s no longer safe to rely on legacy assumptions tied to shirt numbers or static formations.

Props now reflect how fans experience the game; through player matchups, movement, and specific stats. Bettors are stacking combinations like ‘Player A to be carded + Player B 2+ shots on target’ as standard bets. The audience is sharper; and if you’re not proactive with pricing, you’ll get found out.

WW - Football fans consume more stats-driven content than ever. Metrics such as expected goals are now part of mainstream football coverage and they naturally align with prop betting. Fantasy Premier League is a big driver, with fans analysing teams and players in terms of individual outputs - I’ve seen that SpreadEx are even offering markets on FPL points this season. 

The same mindset can be seen in prop betting, with fans backing players on a granular level. Binary micro markets are gaining popularity across both half and minute ranges.

Appetite for richer markets has increased through BetVision, with users now able to stream live games, analyse player stats and bet on prop and micro-markets within one single-screen experience.

How has bettor behaviour evolved in pre-season and futures markets? 

JJ - Futures or ante-post markets have suffered most from the bet builder craze. Perhaps they also reflect wider trends for instantaneous gratification. 

The concept of tying money up for nine months or more is becoming less and less popular. Operators see futures markets increasingly as media opportunities rather than serious revenue drivers, as was the case in the past. 

Abelson Sports still see strong demand for goalscorers for pre-season games but this also plays into the notion that short-term markets are key for engaging punters.

GC - Pre-season is no longer quiet. Streaming coverage and availability of data for friendlies have made these matches far more bettable. Bettors are engaging early, sometimes even before transfer windows close. The FIFA Club World Cup this summer helped bridge the gap. Chelsea, for example, picked up momentum early; not because of a marquee signing, but because of their Club World Cup form and early soft fixture schedule. That kind of sentiment can now spike liabilities in futures markets, weeks before a ball is kicked.

In futures, cross-division combos are still a staple. Punters want season-long storylines with high upside, and they’re comfortable tying together markets from multiple divisions into one combo bet.

WW - Since Leicester City’s 5000/1 title win in the 2015/16 season, there has been a clear appetite to spot longshot value in outright markets. Futures betting is no longer reserved for the obvious favourite; bettors scan odds for dark horses and potential breakout players. 

Personally, I’m a fan of spread betting in pre-season. Markets such as player goals or assists totals can offer great value before the season gets underway, especially if you have done your homework on summer signings. It is a different way to engage with the season-long storylines and spot opportunities the fixed-odds markets might not fully price in yet. 

What do you see as having the biggest impact on bettor behaviour heading into the new season?

JJ - Punters love streaks and as suppliers we are keen to play into that recency bias approach. Any stats that are highlighted on TV are often picked up on by punters who will look to see if there is a betting market that aligns with said stat. 

Bet builder will continue its upward trajectory as we see the product continue to evolve. Player markets will continue to prove critical to a strong product and Abelson Sports are set to experience its busiest season as coverage and depth of offering increases to meet demand.

A new TV deal means that there will be more Premier League games televised than ever before and that should mean good news for UK-based operators. There’s no doubt the televised games attract more turnover and so an increase here should bode well. 

While the Premier League is the king, it has been sad to see the reduction in coverage of the Italian and French Leagues over the last season or so. While OTT solutions exist, the games are best showcased on TV screens. The women’s game has gained incredible traction and I believe that is in large part due to the free-to-air coverage it receives.  

GC - Player markets are clearly the biggest growth area; both in volume and in how hard they’re being scrutinised. Bettors are no longer just backing their favourite club; they’re following data (not just instinct) and building bets around stats and predictive models.

Fantasy football, predictive models, and social media channels are replacing gut feel and pundit talk. Punters are stacking prop bets using expected goals, key passes, etc., and they’re doing it with confidence.

This also means early-season volume is shaped by buzz: whether it’s a clip of a new signing or a viral social media post. We need to track sentiment closely.

I also think the league needs a title race. Last year’s was wrapped up too early, and it killed momentum. The absence of English teams in European finals only made it worse. We’re hoping for more balance this time around; the Premier League, as a betting heat, thrives when the title race stays alive.

WW - Speed and availability will be the big differentiators. Bettors watching live on TV want to place a bet in the moment, which makes fast market settlement, minimal delays and high market uptime critical. Delivering maximum availability across features such as betbuilder, micro-bets and cash-out is going to be vital to retaining customers, driving repeat betting and growing in-play activity through the 90 minutes. 

We are also seeing more cross-league engagement. For example, Serie A and Ligue 1’s prime-time weekend slots feature globally recognisable clubs such as Paris Saint-Germain, AC/Inter Milan, Juventus and Napoli. In a market like the UK, this content is great for growing share of the wallet outside the Premier League. The popularity of BetVision and its unique in-game capabilities across Europe’s elite leagues, including the likes of Ligue 1 and Serie A, will only continue the rise in cross-league betting appeal. 

What are your own predictions for the 25/26 Premier League season? 

JJ - Liverpool won the league at a canter last season, they were fortunate with injuries compared to their rivals and were able to keep a settled squad. Injury impact is the great unknown but it does appear that Liverpool, even allowing for the tragic loss of Diogo Jota, have strengthened their squad impressively. Florian Wirtz, at 22, is considered one of the very best players in the world and his signing is a real statement of intent for a club that has been reluctant to invest sums of this nature in recent years. Indeed, Wirtz is the 7/1, 2f to win the PFA Player of the Year award. It’s hard to see past a Liverpool repeat, something the club hasn’t achieved since the 1980s. 

My household will be firmly behind Aston Villa and with Unai Emery’s Europa League record we feel that they may target this competition, especially given the prize is a place in the Champions League- it may be a softer target than trying to breach a stacked top four.

The African Cup of Nations is positioned over the Christmas period and this change, which will suit other European league calendars but will not please Premier League managers.

At the prices Ollie Watkins could be interesting at 25/1 each-way for the golden boot; he’s Villa’s only senior central striker.

GC - Liverpool are my pick to win the league. They were dominant last season and have only strengthened their squad since. This is despite the tragic loss of Diogo Jota, which may serve as a powerful emotional anchor, making Anfield (already one of the most difficult grounds to visit) even more of a fortress this year. At 2.75 (7/4), they’re rightly positioned as favourites. Not an original prediction but a strong one!

Where I strongly diverge from consensus is in the relegation market. Most people (including our own internal football trading team) expect all three promoted sides to go straight back down. I don’t. I believe at least one survives, and most likely Leeds, who I like.

On the flip side, I’m keeping a close eye on Nottingham Forest (7.0). I share the view on our trading desk that Forest are likely to struggle; the added burden of European fixtures and a thinner squad could create real pressure early on. If results go against them early, together with fixture congestion and a smaller squad, they could be in real trouble. Wolves (4.5) are in a similar position; they lack the depth to last a full campaign.

It’s also worth noting that our Head of Football is extremely bullish on Chelsea’s chances (10.0), citing the depth of the squad, a favourable early fixture run, and the clear signs of youthful player development under the current setup. If they start fast, they could quickly re-establish themselves as serious contenders.

WW - There’s value in Chelsea to go all the way, in my book. They have been building momentum in pre-season following their impressive Club World Cup and some clever summer signings, including João Pedro (I’m a lifelong Watford fan). 

This second one might take some hunting to find, but West Ham United’s summer signing El Hadji Malick Diouf is a player to keep an eye on. He is priced as a left-back but plays further forward down the left, which makes his goal total an interesting angle. I’ve bought both his goals and assists...