Meta Enters Prediction Markets With AI-Powered “Arena” App
The project, reportedly codenamed Arena (and internally referenced as “Antwerp” and “FBForecast”), is being developed to compete with established platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket
Meta is preparing to launch a standalone prediction market app, marking a significant push into the fast-growing forecasting and event-trading sector, according to internal documents.
The project, reportedly codenamed Arena (and internally referenced as “Antwerp” and “FBForecast”), is being developed to compete with established platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which have gained traction by allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
Unlike traditional betting systems, Meta’s version would not involve real-money wagering. Instead, users would receive a daily allocation of virtual credits, described in internal materials as “play money,” which can be used to speculate on “yes” or “no” outcomes tied to future events.
The move places Meta in a sector some analysts believe could scale into a trillion-dollar market, as prediction platforms continue to expand across finance, politics, entertainment, and global events.
According to the documents, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed teams to develop the standalone product, with early versions designed to use the company’s Llama large language model to power key features of the app.
Artificial intelligence is expected to play a central role in the platform’s design. The system would generate prediction questions based on trending topics, while also delivering personalised market recommendations to users. In a further step, AI would also be used to resolve market outcomes, effectively determining whether an event has occurred, with decisions processed in near real time.
That approach would differentiate Meta’s product from existing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where market resolution typically relies on predefined rules, external data sources, or human oversight.
The internal documents suggest the app will continuously surface new markets based on live trends, with AI effectively shaping both the creation and settlement of prediction events.
Meta has not publicly commented on the project, and details around scope, launch timing, or regulatory considerations remain unclear. The plans were first reported by The New York Times, with additional reporting confirming internal documentation reviewed by NPR.
If launched, the product would represent one of Meta’s most direct moves into financial-style forecasting tools, blending social data, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets into a single consumer-facing platform.
