Brazil Election Reshapes Congress As Gambling Industry Awaits Online Betting Decision

Brazil’s gambling industry is facing a changed political landscape after the Liberal Party (PL) made significant gains in Congress while the presidential election advanced to a second round.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the PL presidential candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, received 47.03% of the first-round vote, ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45.16%.

Neither candidate secured the majority required to win outright, meaning Bolsonaro and Lula will contest a presidential runoff on 25 October.

Alongside the presidential vote, Brazilians elected all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the Senate’s 81 members.

The PL emerged as the largest individual party in both chambers, increasing its Senate representation from 15 to 28 seats and securing 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

Congressional Results Could Influence Gambling Ban

The composition of the new Congress could have implications for Brazil’s regulated online gambling market following the provisional measure introduced by Lula’s government on 25 September.

The measure seeks to prohibit online betting and gaming but requires congressional approval to remain in force.

With the PL strengthening its position and wider right and centre-right parties also making gains, the political balance surrounding the measure has shifted following the election.

However, the presidential result remains unresolved, with Bolsonaro and Lula set to compete for the presidency later this month.

Gambling Sector Awaits Political Outcome

Prior to the election, Regulus Partners assessed several potential scenarios for the future of Brazil’s online gambling framework.

Following the introduction of the provisional measure, the consultancy estimated a 45% probability of Bolsonaro winning the presidency and reversing the ban.

It assigned a 40% probability to a second-round election followed by a Lula victory, a scenario it associated with the continuation of a centrist congressional majority.

The first-round results have instead delivered substantial gains for right-wing parties. Of the 54 Senate seats contested, 34 were won by candidates from right or far-right parties.

The gambling industry is also considering legal avenues in response to the provisional measure, with Flutter Entertainment and Betano among the operators reported to be considering challenges.

Attention will now turn to the presidential runoff on 25 October and the subsequent congressional process surrounding the proposed restrictions on Brazil’s regulated online gambling market.